Relaxed Iran "Holding Out Using Hormuz as Leverage"

▲ An anti-American propaganda mural in downtown Tehran, Iran

The New York Times (NYT) analyzed on the 28th (local time) that while the war between the US and Iran, which resumed earlier this month, has entered a lull, the Iranian leadership is not rushing into negotiations.

Iranian officials have dismissed notions of a ceasefire, stating they have never agreed to a truce or negotiations, and instead believe their position is more advantageous than that of the US.

This stands in direct contrast to claims by US President Donald Trump that Iran desperately wants negotiations and that talks are taking place behind the scenes.

Considering the reactions from the Iranian side, the NYT pointed out that the leadership is adopting an attitude of accepting a stalemate with the US, which is neither peace nor all-out war.

It appears they are holding out in the belief that their "threshold" for enduring pain is higher than that of the US.

Iran's top priority right now is not negotiation or a ceasefire, but having its control over the Strait of Hormuz recognized.

The war this month also resumed when Iran launched attacks, claiming that commercial vessels were trying to transit the strait through "illegal routes."

This implies that control over the Strait of Hormuz is critical enough for Iran to risk the collapse of a truce agreement.

Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also stated that the immediate counterpart for negotiations is Oman, not the US, and that the issue of managing the Strait of Hormuz is on the agenda.

The NYT explained that Iran is calculating its response strategy against the US by using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, as it heavily impacts global oil prices as well as the US economy.

Gregory Brew, a senior Iran analyst at the US consulting firm Eurasia Group, predicted, "Iran believes time is on its side and that it can better endure pain and pressure than Trump," adding, "Eventually, Trump will agree to a deal tailored to Iran's demands."

The NYT claimed that President Trump is facing difficulties in making his next decision regarding Iran.

The newspaper reported on the 25th that depleting US military missile stockpiles has been discussed as a major concern within the US government.

Other dilemmas for the US government include the potential expansion of the war across the Middle East, the security of Gulf allies, and adverse impacts on global energy supply chains.

Although the Iranian government is putting up a bold front, it does not want to return to a long-term, all-out war.

If the current situation of neither war nor truce continues, it is certain to increase regime risks stemming from anxiety over the resumption of war, an indefinite end to hostilities, and economic hardship in Iran caused by the maritime blockade.

Senior analyst Brew noted, "For Trump, military pressure may be more attractive than an agreement recognizing Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz," while expressing hope that "if Iran accepts a certain level of compromise on how the strait is operated, there is room for tensions to ease."

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)

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