▲ Kim Jong-un guiding the construction of an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered submarine
As South and North Korea accelerate their competition to secure nuclear-powered submarines, the British daily Financial Times has diagnosed that significant changes are expected in the maritime security architecture of Northeast Asia, extending beyond the Korean Peninsula.
In a report published on the 27th local time, the newspaper evaluated that while North Korea pursues the development of nuclear submarines, South Korea also faces an opportunity to 본격화 (intensify / formalize) its nuclear submarine project bolstered by shifts in U.S. policy, bringing the inter-Korean "underwater arms race" into a new phase.
Peter Ward, a North Korea expert at the Sejong Institute, said, "South Korea deploying nuclear submarines that are faster, quieter, and have longer submersion times than conventional submarines will further complicate military decision-making for North Korea as well as other potential adversaries of the United States," calling it "a major leap forward for South Korean naval power."
South Korea's development of nuclear submarines had previously been repeatedly thwarted due to U.S. opposition, but last year's public approval by U.S. President Donald Trump provided a turning point to drive the project forward.
Accordingly, the South Korean government announced the "Changbogo-N Project" plan last May, which includes the goals of launching the first nuclear submarine in the mid-2030s and deploying it to the Navy in the late 2030s.
North Korea unveiled its nuclear submarine development plan earlier in 2021, and last year, State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un revealed the hull of its first nuclear-powered submarine.
The Financial Times noted that South Korea possesses the technological capabilities required to build nuclear submarines, being a global nuclear power plant exporter with abundant experience in building diesel submarines.
However, experts anticipated that differences in views and approaches regarding how to push forward the project could potentially flare up between South Korea and the Trump administration.
Ankit Panda, a researcher at the U.S. think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, projected that if the submarine project is deemed not to lead to the outcomes expected by President Trump, "he might seek to renege on his commitments."
On the other hand, experts generally assess that the technical maturity of North Korea's nuclear submarine development has not yet been verified.
Variables include the possibility of support from Russia, which has recently been forging closer military ties with North Korea.
Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, diagnosed that the possibility cannot be ruled out that North Korea could acquire nuclear-propulsion technology transferred from Russia in exchange for supporting the war in Ukraine, or secure necessary technologies by utilizing its formidable hacking capabilities.
If both South and North Korea eventually deploy nuclear submarines for operational use, their operational radiuses will expand to the Pacific Ocean, further complicating the military calculations of regional countries including the U.S. and China, the newspaper pointed out.
President Lee Jae-myung explained during a summit with President Trump last year that conventional diesel submarines have "limitations in tracking North Korean or Chinese submarines," and that if South Korea is supplied with fuel for nuclear-powered submarines, "it will also reduce the burden on the U.S. military" in the waters around the Korean Peninsula.
In response, China has cast a watchful eye, stating that cooperation on nuclear submarines between South Korea and the U.S. should be approached with caution.
However, as China is also rapidly expanding its nuclear submarine capabilities, competition for underwater power in the region is expected to intensify further.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University, told the Financial Times that if either South or North Korea successfully deploys a nuclear-powered submarine for operational use, it could also impact the balance of power between the U.S. and China, stating that it will "make the covert competition of tracking and evading among submarines in Asian waters even more intense."
(Photo provided by Korean Central News Agency, Yonhap News)
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