▲ Yemen's Houthi rebels
If Yemen's pro-Iran Houthi rebels materialize their declared maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia, it could cause severe disruptions to the global oil supply chain, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 22nd (local time).
According to shipping analytics firm Kpler, if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—which connects the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea—fails to function properly alongside the Strait of Hormuz, about 25% of the world's oil supply could be affected.
Currently, an average of 45 commercial vessels pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait per day.
Prior to the onset of Houthi attacks before October 2023, 65 to 72 commercial vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait daily.
Kpler projected that if the Houthis implement a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia as threatened, maritime traffic could drop to about half of current levels, and the decline would widen further if the scope of the blockade is expanded.
In fact, following the Houthi's maritime blockade announcement, two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude headed toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait changed course and sailed north toward the Suez Canal.
Other vessels, including car carriers and very large crude carriers (VLCCs) heading from the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, have also reportedly turned back one after another.
Due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been sending crude oil through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, from where it is exported to Asian markets via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Currently, crude oil shipments at the port of Yanbu stand at about 4 million barrels per day, a nearly fourfold increase from before the war.
Of this, about 2.5 million barrels pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Asia.
Jorge Leon of energy consulting firm Rystad Energy said, "If even the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blockaded, virtually the only export route that was replacing the Strait of Hormuz will also be threatened."
Disruptions are occurring not only in the Middle East region but also in Russia's oil exports, compounding negative factors for global supply.
Ukraine recently launched successive drone attacks near Novorossiysk, a Russian Black Sea port.
Consequently, operations of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline, which transports Russian and Kazakh crude oil to the Black Sea, have reportedly been affected.
This pipeline is a key export route that transports about 2% of the global oil supply.
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