▲ President Donald Trump
The deployment of ground troops is reportedly being reconsidered as one of the potential options for the United States to deliver a decisive blow to end the war with Iran, which has now entered its fifth month.
Since the start of the conflict, the U.S. military has relied solely on airstrikes to target Iran.
The only instance of U.S. troops setting foot on Iranian soil was during a rescue mission for a fighter pilot whose plane crashed in Iranian territory in late March.
While there have been movements suggesting the possibility of a ground invasion, such as the deployment of Marine and airborne units along with amphibious assault ships near Iran, no such operation has been executed.
The deployment of ground troops would signify a total war, fundamentally changing the nature of the conflict.
However, U.S. media reported on July 15 (local time) that President Donald Trump recently held a meeting in the White House Situation Room, where he received briefings from his aides regarding ground troop deployment operations.
The online outlet Axios, citing multiple sources, reported that during the meeting held the previous day, President Trump and his aides discussed plans to expand the scope of military operations—currently limited to the area around the Strait of Hormuz—to launch a large-scale offensive.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that there are three main options for this large-scale offensive.
These include intensifying airstrikes, bombing underground nuclear facilities, and deploying ground troops to occupy islands near the Strait of Hormuz.
If ground troops are deployed, the location drawing the most attention from the media is Kharg Island, which is considered Iran's Achilles' heel.
Located 483 km northwest of the Strait of Hormuz and 25 km from the Iranian coast, this small island hosts a terminal through which 90 percent of Iran's crude oil is exported.
President Trump has hinted at the possibility of occupying Kharg Island several times since the war began.
During the war, the U.S. military has bombed military facilities on the island, but under President Trump's instructions, oil-related facilities have been spared.
This was to avoid fueling instability in international oil prices and to prevent difficulties in post-war reconstruction.
In an interview with the pro-Trump network Fox News the previous day, President Trump remained tight-lipped about whether ground troops would be deployed to Kharg Island, but he did not completely rule out the possibility.
Regarding the potential occupation of Kharg Island via ground troops, he said, "I can't tell you. That would be foolish," adding, "If we weaken them enough and push them out, we will do it."
Other options being discussed include occupying key islands near the Strait of Hormuz, such as Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb.
If the U.S. military occupies these locations, it is expected that Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz would be weakened.
The problem is that any deployment of ground troops could come at a high cost for the United States.
Public opinion in the U.S. regarding ground troop deployment could worsen, as it did during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and the worst-case scenario of a failed operation or U.S. casualties must also be considered.
A full-scale war with Iran is likely to cause significant shocks to international oil and financial markets, and it would also mean President Trump is reversing his own stance, having previously drawn a line against ground troop deployment.
The WSJ pointed out that even if U.S. forces occupy islands rather than the Iranian mainland, they would remain at risk of missile and drone attacks.
During the occupation, U.S. forces could be struck by Iran's asymmetric capabilities.
Retired Navy Vice Admiral Robert Howard, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, expressed concern to Fox News that the greatest danger is "Iran firing missiles and drones at the island while U.S. troops are on the ground," noting that maintaining the position would be more difficult than the occupation itself.
Ultimately, as the possibility remains that a fatal blow to Iran could boomerang back, President Trump's message can be interpreted as an attempt to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table.
Since revealing on the 12th that a deal with Iran had fallen through at the last minute, President Trump has continued to mention diplomatic solutions, stating, "I think a deal is possible," and "A deal should be reached by next week."
It is reported that scenarios involving strikes on underground nuclear facilities, power plants, or bridges are also among the options instead of the high-stakes ground invasion. In this context, the Pickaxe Mountain, which he has mentioned several times recently, is drawing attention.
Based on intelligence that a fortified underground nuclear facility is being constructed in a tunnel about 90 to 145 meters deep at the summit of this granite mountain, President Trump hinted in his interview with Fox News the previous day at the possibility of reusing the bunker-buster bombs employed during the strike on Iranian underground nuclear facilities last year.
However, the WSJ noted that the facility is deeper than those in Natanz and Fordow, which were penetrated by bunker-busters last year, and that the ventilation shafts that served as targets at the time have not yet been installed at the Pickaxe Mountain facility, making the success of an attack uncertain.
The attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges, which President Trump has already warned about, could be a fatal blow that, in his own words, would "send Iran back to the Stone Age." However, such actions would also carry the burden of international legal controversy and moral condemnation for attacking civilian infrastructure.
The view exists that President Trump has raised the level of his rhetoric to the point of risking a resumption of war because of his impatience to bring the conflict to a close with high-intensity tactics, regardless of the risks, as there are no signs of a resolution ahead of the midterm elections in November.
In a speech in Pennsylvania that day, he claimed, "We will defeat Iran very soon. They will be defeated very soon," and added, "Once the situation calms down, oil prices will return to (pre-war levels of) $55 per barrel, or perhaps even lower."
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