▲ Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh
Central bank chiefs from major global economies have reached a consensus that artificial intelligence (AI) could upend everything from financial and labor markets to bank lending, security, and power demand, potentially causing problems that are currently unimaginable.
The European Central Bank (ECB) annual forum, which concluded in Sintra, Portugal, on July 1 (local time), saw AI emerge as the overwhelming theme that permeated all agendas, including immigration, climate, and supervision, Reuters reported.
Even Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, who was making his debut at the event, saw the spotlight of the three-day forum shift toward the topic of AI.
"This is the most consequential period for our economies in our lifetime," Warsh said. "When the internet was born, who knew there would be 1.5 million Uber drivers? We are in the first or second inning of this revolution."
Asset bubbles and market manipulation were cited as the primary pathways through which financial stability could be threatened.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned of short-term downside risks, noting that the scale and speed of the current AI investment boom are similar to historical asset bubble collapses, such as the British railway mania of the 1840s, the Roaring Twenties, and the dot-com bubble.
Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management assessed that while capital expenditure (CAPEX), mostly invested in AI infrastructure, has already boosted U.S. GDP by 1 percentage point, the AI stock bubble formed on this basis has been undergoing corrections in recent weeks.
"Whether AI performs better than expected or falls short, financial stability is threatened," he warned, adding that no scenario is safe.
Professor Itay Goldstein of the University of Pennsylvania pointed out, "AI algorithms are actually demonstrating the ability to collude on price manipulation paths, creating bubbles and causing crashes. This has more serious implications for financial stability."
Warnings were also issued that existing supervisory frameworks could be neutralized if AI penetrates deeply into credit decisions.
Tobias Adrian, Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said, "How can supervisors evaluate the lending decisions of these AI agents? It is essentially a black box. It is difficult to explain why such decisions were made, and this is a key supervisory challenge."
Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England (BOE), proposed the introduction of a system similar to deposit insurance for financial institutions vulnerable to cyberattacks.
Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, did not rule out the possibility of a correction following the overheating of AI investment, stating, "The internet also created new industries beyond our imagination, but it could not avoid the dot-com bubble."
The core message of the forum was the two-way risk: if AI meets optimistic expectations and replaces humans on a large scale, it could lead to mass unemployment and a recession due to shrinking consumption; conversely, if it falls short of expectations, the massive investments made could fail to generate returns.
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
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