▲ Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has expressed his view that China is the winner of the conflict between the United States and Iran, warning that prolonged inflation and a power vacuum left by the U.S. military will deepen instability in Asia, including Japan.
In an interview with the Nikkei (Nihon Keizai Shimbun) released on June 30, Campbell stated, "The place most affected by the U.S.-Iran conflict is Asia, including Japan."
Comparing the impact of reduced oil and natural gas supplies due to the Middle East situation to the past COVID-19 pandemic, he explained, "I have reached the conclusion that headwinds such as inflation will last longer than expected," adding, "Energy reserves also require greater resilience."
He added, "China has the capacity in both energy procurement and stockpiling, so it can be said that China is one of the winners of the U.S.-Iran conflict. It is clear that China is the most successful country in navigating the storm of global economic destabilization."
Campbell also expressed concern over the shift of U.S. military resources from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East.
He assessed, "It is difficult to immediately pivot (U.S. military capabilities) back to the Indo-Pacific, and it is likely to have long-term effects. The U.S. military vacuum places a burden on Asian allies such as Japan."
He continued, "Strengthened cooperation among allies has become necessary, and Japan is pushing for improved relations with South Korea. The system that the U.S., Japan, and other Asian nations have built over decades has brought great benefits of peace and stability."
He emphasized, "Even if there is a period of turmoil, I am convinced that the role of the United States in Asia will remain extremely important."
He also expressed concerns regarding the China policy of the Donald Trump administration.
"There are various factions regarding the Trump administration's policy toward China; some believe it is a matter of life and death for the U.S., while others see it as an opportunity to make a lot of money through family businesses," Campbell said. "At this point, the latter group is gaining influence, and some restrictions on technology transfers to China have been lifted."
He added, "President Trump's actions appeared more proactive during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last month than at the G7 summit this month. A structure like the G2 (led by the U.S. and China) is not in the strategic interest of the U.S. or Asia, and I hope such a structure does not emerge."
(Photo: Yonhap News)
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