Netanyahu in Panic? Israel Excluded from De-confliction Mechanism as U.S.-Iran Talks Progress

I am reporting from Switzerland. I would like to discuss the situation regarding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Local reports suggest that Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a state of panic and has been deeply shocked. It may seem puzzling that Netanyahu, who appeared unfazed even after Israel’s military operations in Gaza claimed over 70,000 lives, is now in a panic, but the reason lies with the United States and Iran. The two countries, currently negotiating the details of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war, met here in Switzerland last weekend. In their first meeting, both sides agreed to establish a de-confliction cell to resolve the conflict between Israel and Lebanon. Iran has set several stringent conditions for the nuclear disarmament negotiations sought by the U.S., including the lifting of economic sanctions, permission for Iranian oil exports, and a permanent halt to attacks on Iranian territory. Another condition added to this list is the cessation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon—not just a temporary pause, but a permanent one. This is Article 1 of the U.S.-Iran MOU. Despite President Trump signing the agreement, Israel has continued to attack Lebanon, showing no regard for the terms. As many are aware, these attacks targeted Hezbollah and resulted in dozens of casualties. Iran has raised this issue, leading to the postponement of talks that were scheduled for last week, arguing that negotiations are meaningless if the first article is not upheld. The Trump administration, facing intense criticism over the purpose of this war, is eager to secure at least one nuclear disarmament deal to finalize before the midterm elections in the fall. Consequently, Vice President J.D. Vance even issued a warning to Israel last week, telling them to "wake up."

[J.D. Vance / U.S. Vice President: The Israelis who think President Trump is the problem need to wake up and realize the reality that Israel is facing.]

Nevertheless, Israel remains steadfast in its intention to continue its presence in Lebanon and to persist with attacks if deemed necessary. As a result, a consensus emerged during the first meeting between the U.S. and Iran that the Israel issue must be resolved before substantive negotiations on the nuclear issue can begin. The purpose of the de-confliction cell is to provide a forum for the parties involved to discuss and prevent clashes between Israel and Lebanon. The members of this body include the U.S., Iran, the mediators—Pakistan and Qatar—and Lebanon, the party directly involved. Notably, Israel is excluded from this group.

Israel, the actual party to the conflict, has been left out of the de-confliction mechanism. Why? Simply put, Israel has been designated as a "conflict-instigating state" or a "state that hinders peace." Israel claims its attacks on Hezbollah are an exercise of its right to self-defense, stating, "We are also suffering from Hezbollah's attacks." Indeed, Israeli soldiers have died, and the country has faced drone strikes. However, this effectively labels Israel as the primary culprit violating the ceasefire between the two nations. Think of it this way: when a military clash occurs in Lebanon, the de-confliction cell—without Israel—summons the Lebanese representative to ask, "What happened here?" and "What did Israel do?" before reaching a conclusion. While Israel's perspective may be heard, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar, Lebanon, and even the U.S. are unlikely to give much weight to Israel's side. Returning to the beginning, this is why reports from the region say "Netanyahu is in a panic" and "deeply shocked."

Netanyahu, who encouraged Trump to go to war, is not going to sit idly by. Just as Trump is in a rush ahead of the midterm elections, Netanyahu also faces a general election in November. Facing trial for corruption charges, Netanyahu's future is uncertain if he loses the election. Furthermore, while there is significant war fatigue within Israel, public opinion remains hawkish regarding the Lebanon issue. Southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah exerts influence, borders Israel. Until 2000, this area was a safe zone, similar to a demilitarized zone. Netanyahu's plan is to restore that safe zone using the war with Iran as a pretext, and polls suggest that more than half of the Israeli public supports this. Additionally, other polls indicate that only a little over 10% of Israelis believe Israel won the war against Iran. Therefore, Netanyahu cannot afford to abandon the goal of securing the Lebanon safe zone, which still enjoys public support. Given this situation, even with reports that Trump threatened him by saying he would be in prison if not for him, Netanyahu is holding his ground, insisting he cannot withdraw his troops.

Israel has become the biggest variable in the U.S.-Iran negotiation phase, and there is speculation that Israel could eventually join the de-confliction cell. If Israel were to join, Iran would likely withdraw. Consequently, Israel, isolated and sidelined, has become a wild card whose next move is unpredictable. Conversely, Israel also holds leverage that could disrupt U.S.-Iran negotiations. Reports suggest that Israel is using this as a basis for its diplomatic maneuvering. Netanyahu is unlikely to step down unless he can appease domestic public opinion and secure something that aids his election victory, but there is no clear solution at the moment. While there is discussion about a plan for the Lebanese government forces—rather than Israel or Hezbollah—to secure the safe zone, it is uncertain whether Netanyahu would be satisfied with that. For now, Netanyahu has become a true wild card, making the 60-day window for U.S.-Iran negotiations feel all the more precarious.

※