▲ Tourists visit Jeju Stone Park in Jocheon-eup, Jeju City, on the 24th, equipped with umbrellas and raincoats. (Photo: Yonhap News)
The monsoon season is not expected to arrive this month.
While the monsoon season began relatively early last year, there is a growing possibility that this year's start will be record-breakingly late.
According to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) today (June 25), cold air remains in the upper atmosphere over the Korean Peninsula, keeping the stationary front positioned near 30 degrees north latitude, south of Japan.
This coming weekend, the Korean Peninsula will remain under the influence of a migratory high-pressure system, leading to clear or occasionally cloudy weather.
On Saturday, June 27, the weather will be partly cloudy, turning clear from late afternoon, followed by clear skies on June 28.
The morning low temperatures on June 27 are expected to range from 14 to 20°C (57 to 68°F), with daytime highs between 24 and 31°C (75 to 88°F). On June 28, morning lows are forecast to be 16 to 20°C (61 to 68°F), and daytime highs between 25 and 32°C (77 to 90°F).
Next week, the influence of the migratory high-pressure system is expected to continue, with daytime temperatures rising above 30°C (86°F), maintaining weather that is "similar to or slightly hotter than average years."
Although Typhoon Meari, the 7th typhoon of the season, which passed through waters 440 km southwest of Okinawa, Japan, this morning, may sweep south of Japan and potentially allow the North Pacific high-pressure system to expand toward the Korean Peninsula next week, it is still too early to make a definitive forecast.
In particular, a tropical depression is expected to form near the Philippines around June 29, which could affect the edge of the North Pacific high-pressure system. However, numerical weather models remain divided on whether this tropical depression will actually form.
Around Wednesday, July 1, there is a possibility of rain, mainly in Jeju, as a pressure trough develops and approaches from the west while the stationary front remains south of Japan.
It is currently difficult to determine whether the stationary front will move northward or if the pressure trough will develop into a low-pressure system, which would extend the duration and expand the area of precipitation.
In other words, it is difficult to predict that the monsoon season will begin in Jeju on July 1.
The average (1991–2020) start date for the monsoon season in Jeju, where it arrives first, was June 19, which has already passed by six days.
Since 1973, when the national meteorological observation network was expanded and became the baseline for various weather records, there have only been two instances where the monsoon season in Jeju began in July: 1982 (July 5) and 2021 (July 2). Even if the monsoon starts on July 1, it would be the third-latest on record.
For the southern regions, there have only been five instances where the monsoon began in July: 1992 (July 9), 1982 (July 7), 2021 (July 3), 2014 (July 2), and 1987 (July 1).
For the central regions, there have been six instances: 1982 (July 10), 1987 (July 5), 2021 (July 3), 1992 and 2014 (July 2), and 2017 (July 1).
Last year, the monsoon season began early, marking the 3rd earliest start for Jeju (June 12), and the 13th and 8th earliest for the southern (June 19) and central (June 19) regions, respectively.
(Photo: Yonhap News)
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