[Anchor]
Semiconductor stocks, which have been leading the rally in our stock market, have experienced significant volatility. This has reignited concerns over a "peak-out," suggesting that the semiconductor industry may have already hit its peak and is now on the decline. Whether this shock will be short-lived or mark the beginning of a full-scale downturn depends on interest rates and corporate earnings.
Here is reporter Min Gyeong-ho.
[Reporter]
Over the three trading days since last Thursday, Samsung Electronics has seen its value drop by 18%.
SK Hynix has also plunged 19% over the past four trading days.
With the desire for profit-taking growing after a short-term surge, the earnings report from U.S. semiconductor firm Broadcom late last week added fuel to the downward trend.
As the third-quarter outlook for AI chip revenue fell short of expectations, the market began to question whether massive investments in AI could be sustained.
The expectation that semiconductor demand would continue to overwhelm supply, driving prices ever higher, has been shaken.
[Lee Hyo-seop / Head of Financial Industry Research, Korea Capital Market Institute: It showed concerns that the overall pace of AI facility investment could slow down... (Concerns about a 'peak-out') are now appearing in the numbers.]
Analysts in the securities industry suggest that it is still too early to conclude that the semiconductor industry has passed its peak and is heading for a downturn.
The prevailing view is that this is a short-term correction, as U.S. big tech companies, whose survival depends on AI, cannot easily reduce their investments, and the mid-to-long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry remains intact.
However, there is a consensus that the extent of the correction could vary depending on the pace and scale of U.S. interest rate hikes and the second-quarter earnings of global semiconductor companies, which will be released starting next month.
As the prolonged war between the U.S. and Iran has already created significant inflationary pressure, market volatility could increase whenever the possibility of interest rate hikes arises based on economic indicators released periodically.
[Lee Sang-heon / Senior Research Fellow, iM Securities Research Center: I believe that when the market will hit bottom will be determined by the extent of the impact from interest rates and earnings growth...]
The ongoing initial public offering (IPO) of U.S. space company SpaceX, valued at 2.6 quadrillion won and considered the largest in history, is also being evaluated as a negative factor for the stock prices of existing companies.
(Reported by Lee Moo-jin | Video by Ahn Yeo-jin)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.